South Africa’s new-vehicle market delivered its strongest April performance in 13 years, with domestic sales rising 13% year-on-year, to 47 979 units.

According to data from naamsa | The Automotive Business Council, dealer activity remained the backbone of the market, accounting for 91.1% of total sales, followed by rental sales at 5.1%, corporate fleet sales at 2.2% and sales to government at 1.6%.

Passenger car sales increased by 14.3%, to 34 414 units, while light commercial vehicle sales rose 9.7%, to 10 966 units.

A significant mover in the passenger car market was Japanese importer Suzuki, as it snuck past long-standing silver-medal winner Volkswagen to take the number two spot in the market.

Medium commercial vehicle sales expanded by 10.5% in April, to 687 units, and heavy truck and bus sales were up 9.9%, to 1 912 units.

Exports from South Africa’s six vehicle manufacturers were softer, dropping by 4%, to 30 939 units, with declines also recorded in February and March.

According to vehicle financing group, WesBank, April’s decline was partly driven by a 42.9% drop in light commercial vehicle exports linked to model-change activity at a major bakkie exporter, rather than a clear structural shift in demand.

“This is an amazing show of robustness by local automotive retailers in a month featuring a host of public and school holidays, together with the turmoil caused by the Middle East conflict hanging over the global economy,” comments National Automobile Dealers’ Association (NADA) chairperson Brandon Cohen.

“General consensus was that these factors, together with the expected major increase in the price of fuel, would have put a dampener on the market – not so.”

Cohen adds that April sales may have been boosted by a “general feeling out there” that new vehicle prices will increase significantly as the Middle East conflict continues to put pressure on vehicle and component manufacturers.

WesBank senior economist Thanda Sithole is equally impressed by April’s numbers.

“This is an encouraging result …The growth was also broad-based, with passenger cars, light commercial vehicles and the heavier segments all posting gains. This suggests the recovery has some depth, although affordability remains a key constraint for many consumers.”

April’s sales results arrive against a changing economic backdrop, he adds.

Inflation rose to 3.1% in March from 3% in February, but that reading was taken before the full impact of the recent sharp increases in the fuel price.

The next inflation announcement, due on May 20, will more fully reflect this price movement.

The South African Reserve Bank also kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.75% in March, but warned that higher energy prices could push inflation to around 4% in the second quarter, with fuel inflation above 18%, notes Sithole.

This has postponed expectations of further rate cuts, and leaves vehicle buyers facing a less supportive finance environment.

“While we expect the SARB to hike the policy rate by 25 bps this month – an interim hike – to 7%, amid upwardly revised inflation forecasts, the policy rate should still ease towards 6.25% by the end of 2027,” says Sithole.

Government’s temporary fuel levy relief is providing some near-term support, he confirms.

The R3-a-litre petrol levy reduction has been extended to June 2, while diesel relief increases to R3.93 a litre for May, effectively reducing the diesel levy to zero.

The relief will be halved in June before returning to statutory levels from July 1.

“The fuel levy relief is welcome, particularly for households and commercial operators, but it does not remove the underlying pressure,” believes Sithole.

“Once the relief is phased out, the full impact of higher fuel prices will be felt more directly by motorists, transport operators and the broader supply chain.”

Sithole also warns that proposed import-duty changes on vehicles from selected markets could place pressure on entry-level vehicle pricing.